This project quantifies how parametric uncertainty in an Earth system model
propagates into risk assessments of climate tipping. A central application
is the weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)
, where parametric uncertainty directly shapes the projected likelihood and
timing of weakening. This study successfully quantifies 25-dimensional
parameter uncertainty and checked its validity using Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs).
Presented at EGU General Assembly 2026 (Vienna, Poster) and the JpGU-AGU
Joint Meeting 2026 (Makuhari, Oral). Related manuscript: Kubo, A., & Sawada,
Y. (2026), “Parametric Uncertainty in Prediction of AMOC Weakening by an
Earth System Model.”